Cotton production continues slide in 2019/10 
 

USDA’s first 2019/10 world production forecast is 106.5 million bales, down 1.3 percent from the 2019/09 estimate. If realized, 2019/10 production will be the third consecutive year of decline in world output. China is expected to account for most of the global production decline in 2019/10 with a crop forecast at 33 million bales, down 2.8 million bales (8 percent) from 2019/09. Production in 2019/10 is also expected to decline in Brazil to 5.5 million bales (5 percent) and in Uzbekistan to 4.5 million bales (8 percent) from the 2019/09 crop estimate.

 The impact of these declines on global production is expected to be slightly cushioned by rebounds in Australia and India. As shown in figure, the 2019/10 Australia crop is forecast at 1.9 million bales, up 31 percent from 2019/09. The prolonged drought in Australia in recent years has been giving way to increased precipitation and replenished irrigation supplies. In India, the 2019/10 crop is forecast at 25 million bales, up almost 9 percent from the 2019/09 crop estimate. This unprecedented output in India is expected to result from a combination of continued government support, increased area and yield, and the extensive use of the better yielding Bt cotton varieties.

                              2019/10棉花產(chǎn)量下降
      美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部首次預(yù)測(cè)2019/10棉花產(chǎn)量是1億650萬包，與2019/09年度的預(yù)測(cè)相比，下降了1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。如果預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確的話，2019/10年度的產(chǎn)量將是連續(xù)第三年下降。中國(guó)的棉花產(chǎn)量在占大部分，預(yù)期將達(dá)到33萬包，相比2019/09年度降低了2.8萬包，下降8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。巴西2019/10年度的產(chǎn)量為550萬包，降低5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。烏茲別克斯坦的產(chǎn)量為450萬包，下降8個(gè)點(diǎn)。

      產(chǎn)量下降對(duì)澳大利亞和印度經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈造成沖擊。2019/10澳洲棉花預(yù)期產(chǎn)值有190萬包，增長(zhǎng)31%。由于長(zhǎng)期干旱，澳大利亞近年來全力增加降雨量和補(bǔ)充灌溉用品。印度預(yù)計(jì)2019/10年度作物預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)量是25萬包，與2019/09年度的估計(jì)值相比，增幅為9%。 這一史無前例的產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)得到印度政府的清理支持，增加棉花種植面積，增加棉花產(chǎn)量，運(yùn)用效益更好的Bt棉花種子。